December 5, 2022

East Valley Times

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Who had higher inflation in October: Argentina or Venezuela?

A wad of bolivar banknotes REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria

Win, Draw or Lose? The final result of this economic “protest” is not yet visible, but Argentina may once again surpass Venezuela’s inflation in October.

Inflation in October “finished at 6.2% and prices saw a variation of 28.7 percent compared to the previous month,” Venezuela’s central bank said.

“The behavior of inflation in October was due to the continuation of the orthodox policy of the President’s government. Nicolás Maduro To maintain the stability of the exchange rate by injecting more foreign exchange into the foreign exchange market and controlling public spending and debt”, Reuters pointed out. Thus, after four years of high inflation, in October “year-on-year inflation was 155.79%, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the central bank, which is still the highest inflation in the Latin American region.”, followed by Argentina at 88 percent.

Last month, in the country governed by Maduro, “compared to the previous month in October, educational services were up 18.3% and communications were up 9.6%.” Thus, “accumulated inflation over 10 months was 119.4 percent”, compared to 66% in Argentina.

Alberto Fernandez and Nicolás Maduro
Alberto Fernandez and Nicolás Maduro

“High prices together with dollarization have drastically widened the wage gap between workers in the public and private sector. The minimum wage is equivalent to about 15 dollars and has not been reviewed since last March”, an example of the adjustment implemented by Maduro.

Meanwhile, Venezuela’s independent measure of financial observatories rose 14.5% last month and 173% last year.

Then it was located ColombiaAccording to its address statistics, with a rise of 0.7% 12.2% in the past month and past 12 months; Paraguay inflation was 0.4% and 8.1%, while Peru was 0.4% and 8.6% respectively. Bolivia ranks very low Inflation in the region was 2.8% last year and 0.7% in October.

    Infographic October Inflation Chart for Latin America by Marcelo Regalado
Infographic October Inflation Chart for Latin America by Marcelo Regalado

Meanwhile, in the first fortnight of last month, Brazil recorded inflation of 0.1% -After three consecutive months of deflation- 6.8% last year; In the same period, Mexico’s inflation was 0.4% and 8.5%, respectively.

In the Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the central bank “pIn October 2022, the current survey’s median estimate was 6.5% per month, the average of the predictions of the TOP-10 of the best forecasters reached 6.6 percent. This year, according to private researchers, “LInflation will reach 100 percent in 2022. In October and November, analysts expect a monthly rise of 6.4 percent.

Inflation expectations of analysts surveyed by BCRA
Inflation expectations of analysts surveyed by BCRA

For its part, the government believes inflation was around 6% in October; As a result, the accumulated ratio has increased to 87 percent in the last 12 months.

Economic Council sources said Infobay High-frequency indicators show that last month’s CPI closed at around 6.3%. Core inflation was 5.9 percent.

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After registering a 6.2% increase in September, the economic team retraced its steps and began weaving a price pact as a complement to fiscal adjustment and a rise in interest rates. However, because of the complexity involved in negotiating this “stabilization plan”, the rebranding of mass consumption products has accelerated in recent days, official sources admit.

But beyond this ongoing semi-voluntary suspension, Sergio Massa’s team insist they will push on. In accordance with the guidelines agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As an anchor in the face of a volatile economy, the multilateral organization highlighted it in a document this week. “Argentina’s prospects have worsened,” the fund’s staff said, perhaps more cautious about what could happen in the run-up to the October 2023 presidential elections.

More precisely, the Deputy Minister Gabriel Rubinstein In the Senate last week, the country still “Flirt with hyperinflation”. For now, Argentina will rank fourth in annual inflation this year behind Zimbabwe, Sudan and Venezuela.

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