Vladimir Putin, in his own threat: invade Ukraine or lose his credibility

The crisis in Ukraine is such that it is very difficult for Russian President Vladimir Putin to go it alone and find a way out. It all means that it has already gone too far He had no choice but to execute the threat. He has 127,000 troops, thousands of tanks and transport vehicles, hundreds of missile batteries, at least two large field hospitals, who knows how much more combat equipment. It shows exaggerated power if only for the purpose of being taken seriously. The invasion of Ukraine or the instability of the pro-European government could certainly have been done without that deployment. But he did. It’s over. Reached an irreversible state. The only way to return that army to its original divisions Achieving the exceptional concession of the US and Europe back to the 1990s -People from the Soviet Union-.

“I think he’s going to be active. You have to do something ”US President Joe Biden spoke about the Russian president during a press conference at the White House. In this context, diplomatic talks broke down earlier this month, and efforts again on Friday between Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made no progress beyond agreeing to a new (and last?) Meeting for this week. Blinken has been consulting with his European allies. Over there Some possible last-minute diplomatic solution, something unprecedented, something we do not know.

Russia has consistently denied that it has any plans to invade, and some believe Putin has not yet made a final decision. But with all the threats and final warnings, Putin must do something if he cannot get his maximum concessions from the West. “In a way, Putin is bending over backwards.” Natia Seskuria, a co-member of the Royal United Services Institute, commented on the Vox site. “Deployment like this can only be done once. Next time, no one will believe it’s really going to do that.”

It is already known that some of the demands of the Russian list will not be accepted by the European Union and NATO, as the Kremlin knows. Moscow wants NATO guarantees that it will not expand to the EastIncluding Ukraine, and Reduction in the deployment of troops in some former Soviet states, Which marks a decade-long setback in Europe’s geopolitical and security alignment. “These demands are an attempt by Russia not only to defend its interests in Ukraine, but fundamentally Redesigning the security structure in Europe”, Explained Michael Kaufman, director of the Eastern Europe section at the CNA Institute in Virginia.

Russia has called for “legally binding security guarantees.”Including a ban on NATO expansion, would exclude Ukraine from joining the alliance, and would not allow NATO troops to be stationed or carry out military operations in countries that have joined the organization since 1997. Poland and the former Soviet Baltic states include Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Successive Ukrainian governments over the past decade and NATO have enjoyed good relations and are actively cooperating. But Ukraine is nowhere near officially entering the Western military alliance., The United States openly agrees and Russia knows. However, NATO says Ukraine’s future member is possible because of its open-door policy, under which each country can choose its own security arrangements. Blocking Ukraine’s entry means vetoing Russia’s entry into the alliance. This would restore Russia’s influence in European defense and return to a Cold War situation.

Russia knows that the United States and NATO will never agree to this. The question is what Putin intended to achieve with the impossible initial demand. Some see it as a way to justify invasion. If not, the United States can be blamed for the failure of the talks. “This is an old diplomatic ploy. They are shown as victims. They make unspeakable demands: ‘We tried everything, but they did not want to give anything’. Our security has been compromised and that is why we are taking these steps, ”explained David Salvo of the Coalition for the Defense of Democracy. Although other researchers believe this is a very naive condition. “I do not think Putin wanted to fail as some people think. I think their goal is to get concessions,” said Anatole Leven of the Quincy Institute. How many concessions will satisfy the Russian government and, frankly, allow Putin to increase his internal prestige?”.

In this sense, if the demand for NATO’s commitment to halt any expansion is placed under one diplomatic umbrella, There are still places where Washington and European allies can offer concessionsRussia considers it more provocative, including increased transparency on military maneuvers and exercises, or further discussions on arms control, updating the version of the Interim Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or reducing some naval exercises in areas such as the Black Sea. Alyssa Demus of Rand Corporation surveyed, “There are still potential places at those ends.”It is entirely possible for them to negotiate on those issues and leave other issues at a later date.. But that is a decision that Putin must make, and it is not in anyone else’s hands. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. Olga Lotman, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis, says: “I think you have two options. Say ‘okay, this is a joke’ and it will show your weakness He was intimidated by the coming together of the United States and Europe, which created weakness for him both domestically and in the countries he sought to influence, Or goes to full attack”.

This does not mean that a “diplomatic miracle” will not happen, and that it does not rule out the possibility of a solution that would give Putin enough cover to declare victory without fulfilling his obvious demands. Can not be deleted. Russia and the United States are likely to be stuck in this deadlock for months, In the middle there is a constant threat from Ukraine and Russia. Of course, Putin will be threatened by extremists inside the Kremlin They will think he does not have the courage to pull the trigger. He is seen as a man who talks a lot and threatens, but, when confronted with a harsh response from the other side, backs away.

If he decides to invade – something he needs to do in the next few days There may be more discomfort due to the weather in February– Putin’s position will not be easy. The United States and Europe will impose severe sanctions on the country, its family and its allies, and the oligarchy that runs the Russian economy. Timothy Ash, a strategist at Blu-ray Asset Management, a London-based risk analyst firm, wrote to colleagues: “This crisis and the pressures on energy markets in Europe will strengthen this idea.” Russia is an incredible energy supplier. Plans to open the North Stream 2 gas pipeline will be halted, which will accelerate the diversification of Europe from Russian energy and Russian trade in general, weakening the country’s economy and Increasing dependence on China. This may not be particularly appealing to Putin as Russia faces a major long-term security threat from China in its Far East.

On the other hand, Ukraine has not succumbed to the pressure of the Kremlin and is re-arming at a rapid pace. This is not to say that it can successfully counter a very powerful Russian army, but it is considerably more prepared to defend itself than it was a few months ago at the beginning of the crisis. US military aid increased, while Britain, the Baltic states, Poland, Canada, the Czech Republic and the Dutch promised to increase or increase their war support. As a result, it is possible The cost of any Russian military victory in Ukraine is now significantly higher.

He ordered to build himself, but that Putin is looking for a way out of a site The engineers lost plans to mark the exit. You have to find them alone.

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