Time is speeding up: the government wants a deal with minor adjustments, but the dollars are exhausted and the IMF is still waiting for a firm plan

Is this a storm that comes before peace? Impossible to know: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and very few in government know exactly where the negotiations to repay Argentina’s debt are.

However, some official statements and firm gestures, in the face of an objective fact, allow the situation to get closer: the government wants to close as soon as possible, as reserves for the IMF continue to be depleted. It urgently needs to seal a new project.

The rush is coming from Argentina, which is expected to face $ 800 million next Friday, $ 300 in early February and $ 3,200 million at the end of March.

The only pressure tool that the government can appeal to, without paying 28, is to bet that this decision creates “internal tension” in the fund.

A contract will freeze those payments for three years and if the employee approves the technical plan every three months, he will be allowed to count the payments.

The only pressure tool that the government can use, without paying the 28th, is to bet that this decision creates “internal tension” in the fund, although with the current local financial variables, the problem seems to be greater for the government than for others. .

The difference in the financial path between the government and the IMF will be approximately one percentage point in 2022: 2.9% and 1.9%.

The government maintains – the Minister of Economy made it clear, Martin Guzman– It aims at a more gradual approach to “sinking” the recorded recovery in 2021, although most analysts predict that the economy will not grow on a net basis this year.

On the other hand, employees feel that if the government does not send a strong and rapid signal, it will become increasingly difficult to control inflation and the intermittent exchange rate gap.

In the middle, there is international politics: Foreign Minister Santiago Kafiro’s visit to Washington sought to get approval from the State Department and sought a wedge with the missing treasury. Was Slightly positive comments from the Under Secretary Of the state Brian Nichols And reiterates the government’s demand for a sustainable “economic plan.”

There is official evidence that in fact both the staff and the various stakeholders in the fund are already aware of the plan, although they do not accept it or consider it correct.

Irregular official foreign policy will not help to ignite a link affected by the decisions surrounding Venezuela, Nicaragua and Iran. In this regard, they raise their chests in Buenos Aires after the government “forgot” to capture the Iranian official. Mohsen Resai -1994 for killing 85 people in an AMIA building – in Managua, he did so before Moscow.

Precisely the next stop for the Russian president Alberto Fernandez, During a visit scheduled for the first week of February, when Joseph Biden and Vladimir Putin Measure the forces around Ukraine. For this reason, some officials hope to receive notification of a sealed technical agreement with the fund’s staff before boarding a flight to Europe, although at Palacio de Hacienda they prefer to choose prudently without providing dates and stick to them in Washington. Script to indicate that “talks are ongoing” between the two parties.

However, the announcement of a possible contract would be the first step in a long way, and it would take 10 years of continuous quarterly reviews if the official request is met. For this reason, more than one officer must read the book (or)Diary of a season on the fifth floor“From Juan Carlos TorreNegotiations between the IMF and Argentina in the 1980s include understanding the continuing divisive game between parties inside and outside the country, as well as the tensions within the ruling coalition once the deal goes live. .

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