December 2, 2022

East Valley Times

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The challenges of the dollar and the impending exchange gap

One of the key points to be resolved in the technical negotiations between the government and the state International Monetary Fund A new loan from the agency Dollar level More specifically, that Transfer interval.

In numbers, the Dollar The wholesaler is $ 101.50 and the “cash with account” (white free dollar) is more than $ 209, despite yields in recent days.

That gap is 105% the clearest indicatorInstitution of exchange controls used by the government to control stock losses that deepen the problems of foreign trade That A producer Soy Available for $ 68 Many companies have to cancel loans of more than $ 200.

Among the platform for the trade that makes up this framework, the government argues for itE will be the way to reduce the gap Acceleration to the rate of increase in the total dollar (1% to 2% per month, below inflation) and not the exchange rate increase For now, however, it has not proven that it can get the reserves.

In the business world, the key question is whether the government can avoid a rate hike (19.2%). Juan Carlos Fabreca The dollar went from $ 6.50 to $ 7.75 in January 2014) or the official dollar acceleration (which is currently almost a signal) will open the exchange horizon for 2022.

Aside from the very shake-up deal with the IMF, one basic idea is, After more than a year of sarcasm, Now it is closely believed, if Argentina manages its increase Exports Next year.

This year will end with an exceptional result: US $ 75,000 million Perhaps that situation, coupled with the rise in grain prices in the international market It will not happen again in 2022.

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According to experts – Marcelo Elizando has been struggling with the issue for a long time – Argentina should export between US $ 75,000 million and US $ 90,000 million. Aimed at making enough dollars Must aspire to grow and function again.

A convulsive thing for next year Developed countries are preparing for a rise in interest rates As a result of rising inflation in the United States, the monetary expansion policy used to reactivate economic activity after the sharp fall caused by the epidemic Corona virus.

Possible The end of the “zero ratio era” This is a fact to consider. Higher rates usually include Globally strengthened dollar With the back Prices of weak goods.

The required “export jump” should therefore be highly relied upon Increase in export volume Than hope that good international prices will be favorable again in 2021.

In addition, it is a warning call for industrial exports, the Brazilian ally’s growth forecasts They are not very flattering. In Brazil, they estimate it will grow from zero to 1% next year.

In the midst of a dollar shortage Miguel Bess Arranged Extend the “A7030” resolution to six months It comes from May 2020, and it sets limits on the advance payment of imports and the cancellation of business and financial loans.

On the other hand, the government confirmed it Stocks for meat exports But with flexibility.

Deficit management determines a political system that can be planned for the vast majority of the audience within two years of being in government. Alberto Fernandez.

The OECD report on the import-export component of 70 countries illustrates the focus on key issues for development, such as the return to Elizondo and the relationship between exports and imports. 25% on average.

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In the case of Argentina, That rate is 6.9% And often the principles that make up that idea Dollar deficit “structure” in Argentina They contribute to the belief that only a wave of good international prices will save us from stagnation.

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In a constructive tone, the IMF asks for something regular: an adjustment