Alemania and good part of Europe entered this Monday en un periodo de gran incertidumbre a proposido de las importaciones de gas rusoque dueto al conflicto en Ukraina se redujeron drásticamente en las ultimas semanas y pronto podridánia cortarse por completo.
The Russian giant Gazprom started maintenance work on the gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 on Monday morning, which transports a large part of the gas that it still supplies to Germany and other countries in Western Europe.
“Nord Stream está parado (…) lo que significa que el gas dejó de circular”, confirmedo este lunes a la AFP el ministerio alemán de Economía.
El Cierre durante 10 días de dos pipes, anuncio desde hace tiempo, debiere haber sido en teoría una formalidad técnica. Pero In the context of the war in Ukraine and the pulse between Russia and the Westerners on energy, no one can predict what will come..
Europe fears that Russia will expand the maintenance program to further restrict the supply of gas in Europe, destroying storage plans for the winter and aggravating a gas crisis that has provoked emergency measures on the part of governments and painfully high bills for them. consumers
“Grifo cerrado”
“Hay numeros escenarios en los que podríamos vernos sumergidos en una situación de emergency”, advirtió el presidente de la Agencia Federal de Redes alemana, Klaus Müller, en la televisión, advirtió el lunes ZDF.
“Putin va a cerrarnos el grifo del gas… pero ¿lo volverá abrir un día?”, preguntaba el domingo el diario Bildel más leído de Alemania.
“We are facing an unprecedented situation, everything is possible”, reconoció el fin de semana el ministro de Economía alemán, Robert Habeck, en la radio pública. “Es posible que el gas vuelva a fluir, even en greater quantity que antes. Es posible que no llegue nada más y debemos prepararnos para lo peor, como siempre”, he added.
Russia, arguing a technical problem, already cut 60% of gas deliveries in the last few weeks through Nord Stream, a decision denounced as “political” by Berlin.
In the rest of Europe, Gazprom did the same, reducing its supply to some countries and cutting it completely to others, such as Poland and Bulgaria, which did not accede to its requirement to pay in rubles.
Germany made an effort to convince Canada on Saturday that it would devolve a turbine to Nord Stream 1, which it was maintaining in the country. All this despite the protests of Ukraine.
Germany did not want to give an additional argument to Moscow to interrupt its gas deliveries. The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, through his portavoz, greeted on Sunday “la decision de los amigos canadienses”.
The German government argues that, for technical reasons, It would be difficult for Gazprom to stop the supply through Nord Stream, because the gas of the Siberian reservoir is “under pressure” and cannot be stored forever. “No es como un grifo de agua”, said Habeck.
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, rejected claims that Russia was using petroleum and gas to exercise political pressure, saying that the maintenance stop was a regular and programmed event, and that no one was “inventing” any repairs.
Hay otros grandes gasoductos de Rusia a Europa, pero los flujos han ido diminuyendo paulatinamentesobre todo después de que Ukraine detuviera una ruta de transito de gas en Mayo, culpando a la interference de las fuerzas rusas de occupation.
“Los últimos meses han demonstrated una cosa: Putin no conoce tabúes. Por lo tanto, no se puede descartar una interruption total del supply de gas a través del gasoducto Nord Stream”, dijo Timm Kehler, director general de la asociación industrial alemana Zukunft Gas.
Miedo al rationamiento
Since the beginning of the war, Germany closed another Russian gas pipeline that had to enter operation -Nord Stream 2- and is making efforts to reduce its dependency.
Pero esa dependencia sigue siendo importante: el 35% de sus importaciones de gas provinen de Rusia, contra el 55% antes de la war. Y más del 50% de la heatificación de los hogares resortes al gas.
A permanent paralysis of Nord Stream 1 will not punish the European economy alone. According to the Nord Stream web page, the gas that arrives in Germany, in the locality of Lubmin, is still being transported to Bélgica, Dinamarca, Francia, Gran Bretaña, Países Bajos “y otros países”.
A prolonged interruption of the supply will aggravate the energy crisis in Europe, with rising prices and the fear of a very difficult winter.
In Germany, the authorities analyze the plans of rationing.
The German chemical industry is particularly vulnerable because it depends heavily on gas. La Asociación de la Industria Química (VCI, por sus siglas en alemán) affirma prepararse para “lo peor”.
The important company BASF, with headquarters in Ludwigshafen (southeast), is thinking of imposing partial unemployment on part of the workers if they start to miss Russian gas.
“Si no llega más gas ruso (…) tenemos reservas actualmente para un mes o dos”, explained Klaus Müller.
La cámara baja alemana, el Bundestag, already adopted on Thursday its own energy-saving plan: se acabó heating por encima de 20 grados en invierno, y habra agua caliente en los lavabos individuales.
(With information from AFP and Reuters)
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