May 31, 2023

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Russia completes military stand: it encircles Ukraine and may invade at any time

A Russian artillery convoy reaches the Crimean peninsula via a highway near the Ukrainian border. The deployment of Kremlin forces is almost complete and ready for invasion. AP

Russia has already established its full military strength and could launch Ukraine’s long-awaited invasion at any time. US Secretary of State Anthony Blingen confirmed this: “It could be over in a very short time.” Estimated by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine It has about 127,000 Russian soldiers on its border, Short- and medium-range missile batteries, at least two large field hospitals, submarines in the Black Sea and thousands of tanks parked on ships and access routes. An unseen deployment from the US Armed Forces’ products before the Iraq war.

When he went to Kiev to show support for Ukraine, Blinken said Ukrainians need to be prepared for tough days. He also promised that Washington would continue to provide security assistance to the Ukrainian armed forces and renew its promise to impose tough sanctions on Russia in the event of a new invasion. Statement confirming it again The United States is not ready to send troops to confront the invaders. There are no other forces in the Western military alliance that are members of NATO.

From the Kremlin, a spokesman acknowledged that tensions were rising around Ukraine. Russia is still waiting for a written response from the United States to its broader demands for security guarantees. By the west. President Vladimir Putin wants a long-term agreement that Ukraine will not join the European Union or NATO. He firmly believes that if that happens, Russian security will suffer. When the Kiev government wanted to move closer to the EU in 2014, Putin invaded and annexed the Crimean peninsula and unleashed a separatist war in the Donbass region.

Official picture of the Belarusian government showing the entry of troops sent by the Kremlin "Some military exercises".  From there he could launch an invasion of Ukraine from the north.
The official picture of the Belarusian government shows the Kremlin sending troops into the border to carry out “some military exercises.” From there he could launch an invasion of Ukraine from the north.

Reports of distrust on both sides showed the abyss between Washington and Moscow – after three rounds of talks in recent days – Blingen is set to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday, Called a Russian foreign policy analyst “Probably the last stop before the train crash.” The US diplomat promised to continue “relentless efforts to prevent a new occupation” and that the deployment of Russian troops would take place “without provocation and without cause.” The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that “Western arms exports to Ukraine, military exercises and NATO flights” were the cause of tensions around Ukraine. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov sought to reduce the controversy He did not believe there was a risk of a “full-scale war.”

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Various analyzes of European and private intelligence agencies point to it Russia has a few more days Logistics units and 175,000 soldiers must conduct a combined attack. Despite that They put a possible action date at the end of January. Meanwhile, under the guise of joint military exercises, Russian troops continue to gather in Belarus under dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Moscow’s unconditional ally. This would allow Russian generals to invade neighboring Ukraine from the north, east and south.

“Full strength of the RF-AF (Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) ground committee in the direction of Ukraine More than 94,000 troops. The total number of personnel, including marine and air components, is over 127,000 soldiers, “according to a report released by the Ukrainian Defense Assessment CNN. It also has the support of about 35,000 insurgents and 3,000 soldiers from the Moscow Donbass region. They are there to train separatists. There are 36 Iskander tactical-action missile missile batteries that can hit targets at a range of 500/700 km. They can reach the capital, Kiev, from anywhere on the border.

The United States is strengthening its security in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky thanked Blingen for increasing military aid in Kiev. Javelin anti-tank missiles. President Joe Biden allowed an additional $ 200 million. Britain also supplies missiles to stop advancing tanks, and more heavy weapons are expected to come from Germany and France. French President Emmanuel Macron has called on the European Union to extend all possible assistance to Ukraine. Ukraine has an army of 145,000, According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), but there are an estimated 300,000 soldiers in low-intensity conflict in the Donbass region. Polls say that One-third of Ukrainian citizens are ready to carry out “armed resistance”. “A firm defense will require a force of at least 325,000-strong, one anti-insurgency for every 20 civilians,” said a report by the War Research Institute in Washington.

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There was growing concern in Europe and knowledge of the possibility of an impending invasion Entry of Russian troops into Belarusian border. The Ukrainian military intelligence document states that “this should be seen as an arena for full-scale action that Russia could use to expand its aggression against Ukraine.” From there they can cross the Dnieper River barrier, which cuts Ukrainian territory in two. Very easy to get to the Ukrainian capital. Russia has the unconditional support of Alexander Lukashenko, who is in power because of the support of Vladimir Putin, and has made the Ukrainian cause his own. At an Orthodox Christmas celebration on January 7, the President of Belarus declared his country “I will do everything I can to reclaim Ukraine.”

“Russia is taking advantage of Lukashenko’s influence Drawing up some of the accumulated pledge notesA U.S. Department of Defense official quoted Reuters as saying. “It simply came to our notice then A lightning strike may begin from the north, Leaving troops from the east and south as a barrier.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky on January 19, 2022 in Kiev, Ukraine.  Alex Brandon / Pool via REUTERS
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky on January 19, 2022 in Kiev, Ukraine. Alex Brandon / Pool via REUTERS

Russian mechanized forces will aim to encircle Kiev from the west. One of the paths Cross the winter freezing precipitous swamps and the Chernobyl regionl, something that is not considered a major problem for a modern military capable of operating in the radiation zone. So far there is no evidence, but military analysts point out that mechanized forces were significantly deployed in Paranoia, Belarus. “That would be a clear signal that Putin is ready to act, and that will not stop him.”

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Even if it does not invade the sector, a permanent Russian military presence in Belarus will benefit the Kremlin, which is a potential threat not only to Ukraine but also to the northern Baltic states. It would create “a large military base that would give Russia air dominance in the eastern part of NATO.”Saddam told The Guardian the Orissa Lutchevich, a researcher in the House think tank.

In a last-ditch effort to find an agreement to end the Russian threat to Ukraine, Secretary-General Blingen will meet with his Russian envoy, the experienced Lavrov, in Geneva this Friday. As far as is known, The differences are even bigger. Putin wants Washington to ensure that there are no new members in NATO and that it never expands toward countries that seceded from the former Soviet Union. Moscow considers it its “backyard”. Senior Russian diplomat Vladimir Frolov said: “The Lavrov-Blinken junction may be the last stop before the train crash. But hopes are low Positions do not apply. Until the US surrenders and Ukraine surrenders to Russia, I think some sort of military option is almost inevitable.

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