Luis Inacio is the former president and favorite candidate for the presidency of Brazil Lula da Silva remains favorite for October election and narrows gap between evangelical votersIn this his preferences for re-election are dominated by the President Jair Bolsonaro, according to a survey by the Datafolha demoscopic institute published in Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper this week.
According to the company survey data sheet Released this Thursday night Lula has 33 votes to 45 percent against far-right BolsonaroWith nine percent, Representative Ciro Gomez of the Democratic Workers Party and lastly, Senator Simone Debate of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party with four percent.
The results of the survey, considered the most reliable in the country, indicate that In a possible second round, the former unionist, who ruled Brazil between 2003 and 2010, would have 54 percent of voting intentions, one point higher than in the previous poll, compared to the 38 points maintained by Bolsonaro.
The data also indicates that Lula has a higher intention to vote than the other candidates, in other words giving him more than half of the valid votes, so if the statistics are confirmed, he could be elected in the first round and without the need for a ballot. In Brazil, the candidate who receives 50 percent of the first round and one valid vote wins without the need for a ballot.
Evangelical voters represent 30 percent of the electorate for the Oct. 2 elections and are considered key to Bolsonaro’s support among the most conservative popular groups. According to the Datafolha survey, Lula narrowed Bolsonaro’s lead in the evangelical segment from 23 to 17 points.
Bolsonaro, for his part, had a preference of 51 percent at the beginning of September, and this week fell to 49 percent.Meanwhile, Protestant Christian support for Brazilian liturgies rose from 28 to 32 percent.
Last Friday, Lula, along with his running mate Geraldo Alcmin, hosted an event called “Evangelists with Lula and Alcmin” in Sao Concalo, near Rio de Janeiro.. The meeting was attended by evangelical pastors who support the Labor Party’s (PT) presidential candidacy and reject the president.
Secondly, The far-right president is trying to win the loyalty of more conservative religious voters by investing in a customs program as he did in 2018, with the PT blaming abortion, drug liberalization and whatnot in its election campaign. It is called gender ideology.
Bolsonaro also has the official support of several neo-Pentecostal media religious leaders, who follow the Assembly of God, the Universal Church (owner of the second air channel, official record) and other cults that have a high following in the favelas (neighborhoods). emergency) and small towns. In this scenario, Bolsonaro’s wife occupies an important position. An evangelical fanatic claims to have had visions of God connecting with the president at the Alvorada Palace, the presidential residence, while First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro is relevant in action, praying in public and maintaining that her husband is an ambassador. To save the country from communism.
Fight the poor
The PT’s former president and candidate maintains a wide advantage within the voter group with incomes up to 400 dollars, but reduced the preference from 54 to 52 percent, while Bolsonaro advanced from 26 to 27 percent in this general.This represents almost half of the neighboring country.
According to the Datafolha survey, Lula dominates the northeastern region, the country’s poorest, and leads the most populous and richest state of 46 million people, São Paulo, the second most populous Minas Gerais, and the third, Rio de Janeiro, all in the southeastern region.
As for governor, PT candidate Fernando Haddad is favored to win in São Paulo, although he will go to a second round with either Bolsonaroist Darcisio Freitas or current governor Rodrigo Garcia of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB).
In Minas Gerais, Bolsonaro of the libertarian Partido Novo faces reelection in the first round against Lulista Alexandre Kalil, the mayor of Belo Horizonte. Since 1989, all presidential winners have also won Minas Gerais.
For his part, in Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro governor Claudio Castro is leading, but according to Datafolha he will have to run against Lula’s candidate, Marcelo Freixo of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB).
Bolsonaro against the referendum
The far-right president is responsible for disparaging Datafolha polls in his meetings. “Here is no lying Datafolha. Here is our Datapueblo,” he told a rally of supporters in Brasilia last week, a speech echoed by many of his staunchest supporters.
Datafolha confirms that their pollsters have been increasingly harassed while doing their work in different parts of the country.. Amid the escalation of violence by Bolsonaro extremists, this Tuesday the 13th, at least 10 pollsters (out of a total of 470) working for polling company Datafolha were attacked in various parts of the country.
The cases occurred in the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Alagos, Maranhão, Goias, Pará, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. According to the company’s version, the people who seek to intimidate the investigators, in most cases, declare themselves Bolsonaroistas or cite the name of President Jair Bolsonaro.
Luciana Chong, general director of Datafolha, said the attackers accused the company of being communist and sometimes threatened interviewers and tried to film them. For example, this Wednesday, a woman was filmed and exposed on social networks by a man who accused Bolsonaro of not wanting to be interviewed because she was a follower of him. “If you say you support Bolsonaro, she runs. Look how she ran, look at the lie, the mockery,” the man said as he chased the pollster down the street.
Chong explained to the news agency AFP Not accepting interviews from people who come forward to answer the questionnaire is one of the main rules to guarantee that the studies are not biased. “The approach should be random, within the parameters defined while creating the sample, which should be representative of the city, neighborhood, age and gender of the interviewees”He explained.