Hernán Lagunza took the stage with humor. “They asked me to give good news, but that was an oxymoron.” He flashed a few smiles. It was Thursday morning and He spoke to an audience of about 150 leaders from across the country supporting the presidential candidacy of Horacio Rodríguez Lauretta in 2023.
“It will be cloudy. There will be no sun, but there will be fog. We’re going to see some storms, isolated showers. Tsunami is not coming. They work to avoid hailstorms”, The former economy minister said that the Frente de Todos of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner will have a government of the next 15 months.
Then translated: “Cloudiness means stagnation. Fog means high inflation. An isolated storm is blue and prices will fall and rise. Tsunami is not going to happen, hyperinflation, pleban or default. Hail is the exchange rate that the government is focusing on today.
He left room for a kind tribute to Sergio Massa: “He has the muscle to unify an anarchy.”
Lagunza denied that today’s problem is only linked to politics. “There is an objective economic problem. There is a shortage of dollars and pesos left,” he explained, and Massa confirmed that he is “addressing it with monetary policy, fiscal deferral.” [pateando deuda] and sales adjustments, with more noise than nuts”. There he was harsh in calling “I want to come”. Lagunza said the government was not facing the underlying problems but was merely postponing them. “He’s not facing unions, governors or public institutions,” he questioned, adding that the next 15 months will see stagnant output and employment and high inflation.
“Legacy will be rough, maybe worse than 2015”, The economist warned. Some indicators, he told the public, would be dire. He predicted 40% poverty and 90% inflation.
Regarding plans for 2023, Lacunza raised two clear objectives: employment and foreign exchange. “Without employment there is no social cohesion; Without foreign exchange, we are bankrupt,” he said. He then spoke of three pillars: he asked that he be integrated into the world, that he should not spend more than he earned, and suggested that the treatment would be shock. “Let us not fall into the trap of shame. Let us not fall short. Let us not be ashamed of what we must do.”The economist clarified. “Macro dictates. Do you know why it’s gone wrong for us? For the dollar. We need a general equilibrium”, He pointed out. Then he left a warning: “If we don’t do this, the dollar will fly.” This was in 2018 and 2019.
He expected that with inflation at these levels, real wages would fall and investment would not. And that situation will complicate exports. He criticized the lack of rules of the game, restrictions on imports, and said it was the government’s job to “pave the way” and simplify at the national and provincial levels.
“Agriculture, Mining, Energy, Knowledge Services, Tourism and Construction”, are listed as major fields. “The first three contribute to foreign exchange; The other three are employment. All six have a common characteristic: they are in all cities, all provinces, and all towns. It is spreading across the country,” he said.
At the end of the 10-minute-long exhibition, Lagunza recalled the three reforms Macrismo made. forecast; “The one with the stones,” he recalled. Taxation and Fiscal Consensus. “Two years later they reversed. In 2020, they did the opposite. Half of those who did were the same people. Here’s what they voted for in 2017! This is a country without faith. He is not worthy of glory. We have to convince ourselves that what we need to do is not to reverse it. So whoever takes the post builds on what we have built”. Finished the former Minister of Economy. He played local; The audience responded with applause.
A day after the transition meeting, at the Ministry of Economy, trade unionist José Luis Lingeri (Aguas) arrived on the fifth floor of the Ministry of Economy. His “bodyguards” who were already in the elevator confirmed it in code: “The duck is in the water”. Massa assured him, Andrés Rodríguez (UPCN) and Gerardo Martinez (Uocra) that the “correction” would not touch them. An important public work for governors in an election year, inflation is estimated at 60% in the budget, which will rise by 0.3 percentage points compared to this year (which will be 1.58% of GDP). Private analysts believe that without a stabilization plan, inflation would be close to 100%.
Politics looks at Massa’s steps and his numbers. Minister will not raise taxes. But he left Congress and the “UN offprint,” a menu to eliminate corporate tax breaks, was recommended by the fund. But apart from politics, Massa sees the economy, which -as Lacunza says- has a single variable: dollar.
For now, Massa’s economic team is betting on a phased demonetisation. Soybean opens a window to improve dollar reserves -which could exceed the value of US$5 billion-, but, at the same time, it complicates the BCRA’s assets, encouraging inflation due to the high money issue when buying dollars. . Despite the rise in rates or bills Dollar attached, Free pesos fly to fiscal dollars, widening the exchange rate gap, the mother of dynamics that precisely erodes central bank reserves.
Weeks before the World Cup in Qatar, the Ministry of Economy is focusing on the “tourist dollar” to stop the bleeding. “There are ideas, initiatives, proposals, but they are sectorial,” they say on the fifth floor of the Palacio de Hacienda. Raising revenue sentiment (which is already at 45%) will have little impact this time of year. Will be back very soon. Bringing it to MEP may affect your contribution and collection of PAIS tax. That hike will affect services Streaming And in importing drugs, they believe. “It is important to have a comprehensive view”, Account in the Ministry of Economy. The analysis is still a work in progress; Nothing is rejected.
Meanwhile, Martín Insaurralde, who often talks with Massa, is preparing a “move” next week – along with several Buenos Aires chambers of commerce – to promote the “priority” of dollars. The statement of Adiba, Cepba, FEBA and Uipba already “moved” last week. Massa was invited to an event with CAME the following Friday, which originally requested the restrictions. Its president, Alfredo González, did this in a meeting with Matias Tombolini, secretary of domestic trade. At the UIA, they believe a clamor is bogus because they refused to ask for the “Qatar dollar” last week. Status Status: Nothing is ruled out, departments should listen to it.
For example, a “cry” has already reached another window very recently. Next to the trampoline they noted the “advantages of using dollars.” hard” For (higher cost) imports, incidentally, Cgera -another chamber of commerce- recommended it. The 2023 budget proposal includes a specific wash for imports of goods. In addition, in another article, the construction is expanded. That model of official action is one Extra song: “They asked for one window, we opened two”, They report in Economy on Massa’s decision to promote the automatic exchange of financial information in the United States to search for $100,000 million in undeclared Argentine accounts. After his meeting with the Treasury and the White House, The minister was excited. This would be a political achievement for the state in relation to tax data leaks that could end up as inputs for political operations.