How Alberto Fernandez’s Strategist Thinks

His admirers know him as “Mr. Yes” for his tendency to elaborate clear political strategies based on positive messages. His detractors describe him as a “progressive Duran Barba” who has a penchant for working for centre-left candidates. The truth is Anthony Gutierrez Ruby In recent years Alberto has become Fernández’s cult advisor, more precisely The Catalan sociologist led the All Front’s campaign After a heavy defeat in PASO 2021, the ruling party managed to greatly improve its result in the last parliamentary election.

From the eighties, with the then emerging Spanish Socialist Workers Party, to his last work in the campaign that brought Gustavo Pedro to the presidency in Colombia, Gutiérrez Rubi’s career was highly successful, based on research-based strategies. Qualitative and quantitative surveys not only measure what voters think, but also fundamentally, what are you feeling”.

Gutiérrez Rubí does not usually give interviews to journalists, but the author Democratic fatigue Last week he gave a master class to students of Academic Profile and subscribers of Digital Profile, in which he presented his ideas in a powerful manner. “Political communication and election campaigns defy the era,” the exhibition said fake news and hate speech”, clear evidence How Alberto Fernandez’s Strategist Thinks.

For the Ideograma director, current societies, particularly Latin American societies, are going through a phase. A deep political crisisIt can be read through the paradigm of Six D.

disbelief. Latin America is the most distrustful region on the planet: only three out of ten Latin Americans trust their government, regardless of whether it’s right-wing or left-wing. Companies are deteriorating. According to LatinoBarometer, the decline in confidence has been since 2008, when financial markets collapsed and democratic instruments were unable to weather the storm. A Crisis of confidence in the republican system It has been known since the French Revolution.

It was the worst crisis of democracy since the French Revolution.

disappointment Any government that begins its mandate, whether populist or liberal, will soon lose massive support because it fails to meet the demands that brought it to power. The same happened to Chile’s Gabriel Boric, who squandered his political capital within months, and British Prime Minister Liz Truss, who was forced to resign days after taking office.

Time flew by and Voters are demanding faster and faster reforms And in less time. The room for maneuver in the face of emergency has become scarce.

Inequality. The world is showing a severe crisis of equality and opportunity. Before the pandemic, the downward trend in inequality was broken. And in the post-pandemic period, inequality has grown by leaps and bounds due to the war in Ukraine and its impact on rising energy and food prices.

Within three years, Latin America was affected Classifying a hundred million people. Currently, one in three Latin Americans is poor. Whereas the gap between the rich and the poor widens without any control.

Democracy, or the crisis of democracy. One in four Latin Americans do not believe democracy can solve their problems. Democracies are experiencing the worst allocations of health in centuries. Some authors like this Larry Diamond Denomina “Democratic Depression”Oh Anna Applebaum Lama “Twilight of Democracy” Marta Lagos qualified “Democratic Diabetes”.

We are facing the first generation that knows for sure that we are going to live worse than the previous generation. They are young people who know that their time will be worse than that of their parents. It is a large segment of the population that associates democracy with a regulatory framework It does not guarantee social progress.

Social division. Not just the socioeconomics, but also the breakdown of the social bond. There have always been societies with great ideological differences, but in which a certain degree of shared status was maintained. That process is breaking down today.

Before the pandemic, the emergence of a protest began to look like a way out, a kind of democratic capture. It is not an electoral eviction: It is an outrage against the establishment with strong social demands. Social protests will be led by youth and low-income people, who will take democratic relief. Increased extreme polarization.

Wrong information. An industry that exists for political gain. Disinformation, information bubbles and narcotics threaten democracy. Basically there is information overload The ClickbaitIt cannibalizes and devours real informationIt should play a democratic role.

Algorithms’ main business is the data that generates the reader’s attention. It doesn’t matter if it’s a way fake news. Online attention is a glass prison and the fight for attention makes the information bubble attractive to some companies. But this process weakens the nature of information service because these echo chambers are based on prejudice and create an amniotic fluid of intellectual impoverishment.

An era of “democratic recession”, “twilight of democracy” or “democratic diabetes”.

The consequence of this dramatic crisis is that it leads to highly fragmented societies in which extreme forces may represent less than twenty percent of the electorate, yet can achieve dominant majorities. They are not the vast majority, however A vocal minority is tearing apart polarization through hate speech It can turn into political violence.

For Gutiérrez Rubí, there are two priority bases for every election campaign. The first is to understand and analyze the political, economic and historical context of each election Based on the data and Not based on preconceived notions about voters. Second, every election campaign hides a question: Change or Continuity? Understanding that answer is the foundation of every exam.

Finally, it is necessary to pay special attention to the panorama High peer pressure Witness it today. “We are facing communities that are very difficult to control,” Gutierrez Ruby said. They are like a galloping horse that throws off its rider as soon as it starts running. It doesn’t matter if another rider uses a different method to restrain the horse: He also throws it on the ground In a very short time.”