Scientists are seeing signs that dangerous cases of the Omigron variant may have peaked in the UK, and are set to do the same in the United States., By that time the infections will start to decrease significantly.
Reason: One and a half months after it was first diagnosed in South Africa, this variant has proven to be a very widespread epidemic..
“It goes downhill at the same pace as it went uphill,” he said. Ali Mogdat, Professor of Health Metrology at the University of Washington in Seattle.
At the same time, experts warn There are still many doubts about how the next stage of the infection will unfold. Stagnation or decline in both countries do not occur everywhere at the same time or at the same rate. Despite the decline, more and more patients and hospitals still have weeks or months of suffering.
“Many more are infected When we go downhill from the back, ”said Lauren Ansel Myers, director of the Govt-19 Modeling Federation at the University of Texas. Registered cases peak this week.
The most influential model of the University of Washington confirms it The number of daily cases reported in the United States rose to 1.2 million on January 19 and then fell sharply “Because there will be everyone who can be infected.”, According to Mokdad.
In fact, according to the university’s complex estimates, the actual number of new infections per day in the United States – an estimate that includes people who have never been tested – Has already peaked, reaching 6 million on January 6th.
In the UK, meanwhile, The number of new COVID-19 cases dropped to about 140,000 a day in the past week, After rising to more than 200,000 a day earlier this month, according to government data.
Kevin McConaughey, A retired professor of applied statistics at the British Open University, said cases were on the rise in places such as the southwestern and western Midlands of the United Kingdom. The eruption may have peaked in London.
These figures have given rise to the belief that Both countries will see what happened in South Africa, The peak subsided and then subsided considerably a month later.
“We are seeing a steady decline in cases in the UK, but I would like to see them fall further before I know what happened in South Africa here,” said Dr Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at a British university. East Anglia.
The differences between Britain and South Africa, including Britain’s older population and the tendency for its citizens to spend more time indoors during the winter, could mean a more random explosion for the country and other such countries.
On the other hand, the decision of the British authorities may allow the adoption of minimum restrictions against the Omicron variant The virus will destroy the population and run its course much faster than in Western European countries France, Spain and Italy have imposed strict restrictions.
On Tuesday, the World Health Organization said S.C.e generated 7 million new COVID-19 cases across Europe in the past week, calling it a “tidal wave sweeping the region.”. The WHO cited the model of the Mokdad group that predicted it In about eight weeks, half of the European population will be affected by Omigran.
By then, however, Hunter and others believe the world has crossed the wave.
Nevertheless, a large number of patients may be affected Great for weak health systemsSaid Dr. Prabhat Jah of the Global Health Research Center in St. Louis.
(With AP info)
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