December 5, 2022

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Bolsonaro’s political power and Lula’s challenges: Experts analyze first-round results in Brazil

Brazil is mired in great political polarization (REUTERS / Adriano Machado)

The results of Brazil’s first round surprised more than one, with many pollsters including Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party (PT) optimistic of a first-round victory, citing high voter turnout. than 50%. Voting is confirmed on October 30 nextMany questions arise about how Lula and Bolsonaro will attract the votes of other candidates, and how a country deeply polarized between two different political expressions will face these four weeks.

Brazilian journalists spoke on these and other topics on Monday Janana FigueridoSenior Correspondent of the magazine O’GloboY Marcia GarmoNetwork journalists BBC Brazilly from the Bandeirantes group during a virtual conference organized by the Argentine Political Analyst Sergio Berensteinand includes comments from Argentina Senior Counsel Fabian Street.

Virtual Meeting, titled “Presidential Elections in Brazil: The Day After”aired Through the Berenstein Canal.

“What we experienced last night was a big surprise. Even today, no one predicted it except the Bolsonaroistas who talked about the fraud. But the majority of Brazilians, the polls, the media… the general feeling was not. In recent days, there has been a wave of information that Lula could win the first round, 51 Encouraged by recent polls from major companies that talked about Lula with % of valid votes. It created a feeling that the chance of winning in the first round is not low. On the other hand, all polls gave Bolsonaro a 40% vote intention. When the counting of the Superior Electoral Court began, and Bolsonaro was in the lead, he would return soon. “We all thought so. But it wasn’t like that. With 66% of the votes counted, Lula was in the lead,” Figueiredo commented. PT “to 8 p.m.” and “they were convinced they had won the first round”.

To the journalist O’Globo, The big surprise of the night was the “Polnarista wave like no one saw.” “Many must be self-critical as to why no one saw this wave coming. This is a very impressive wave, showing that the right half of the country is represented; It’s very polarized.”

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“Practice-oriented, non-ideological fields tend to have a more accurate opinion than press and polling firms,” ​​Calle said. He considered that “the opinion of the armed forces after being told that if Lula wins there will be a coup”. Second round.

Apart from the Bolivarian forces – the Venezuelan forces, as well as those from other regions such as Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay – the Argentinian expert assured that “they have more commitment to the Constitution than many politicians”. .”

Carmo, for his part, believed that “Bolsonaroism already existed before Bolsonaro” in Brazil: “A large sector of society did not have a leader to represent them, so Bolsonaro appeared in the 2018 elections, appearing when the justice decided that Lula was prevented from participating; Bolsonaro’s enemy Hadad. He is representative of a very broad sector of Brazilian society.

Journalist BBC Brazil He emphasized that in the country “Antagonism still prevails.” “Surveys don’t find that either. At the same time, there was another movement to vote for Lula because they didn’t want Bolsonaro because of the pandemic. Female voters are the biggest rejection of Bolsonaro because of his defense of his use of weapons – Brazil has one of the highest crime rates – while similar attitudes he has adopted on social networks. No oxygen.

Sunday's results reflect the enormous political power of President Bolsonaro, who will be re-elected in an October 30 runoff (Andre Coelho/Pool via REUTERS).
Sunday’s results reflect the enormous political power of President Bolsonaro, who will be re-elected in an October 30 runoff (Andre Coelho/Pool via REUTERS).

Brazilian journalists agreed Sunday’s results showed Bolsonaro “has more political power.” In that way, they recalled, the president’s party increased its presence in Congress, while many of its gubernatorial candidates won elections. “If Lula is elected, he will have a lot of hip to govern with a Bolsonaroist Congress and several Bolsonaroist governors,” Garmo pointed out.

He also pointed out that unlike what happened with Bolsonaro, the Workers’ Party “doesn’t know how to renew its leaders”, recalling that Lula himself was the Popular Movement’s candidate in the 1989 elections.

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“The Bolsonaro phenomenon is a structural phenomenon, not a historical accident of 2018. The streets were mostly for Bolsonaro during the campaign, and he had a very strong militancy on social networks. It reached the masses through evangelical radio stations, bloggers. Critics of Bolsonaro’s dictatorship: “They don’t like Bolsonaro, But they defend the Castros, Xi Jinping, Maduro and Putin. It seems that these people are more sensitive to Bolsonaro’s dictatorship than, for example, Putin.”

Confronted with the vote, Carmo commented: “It is often said that the second round in Brazil is a new election. There are only two candidates. Bolsonaro has already promised more social assistance today, if Lula says yes or if he should explain his government plan better. In other words, an increase in public spending, and an attempt to gain the missing votes to defeat Lula, about six million votes”.

“Lula has practically come without any proposal. What he did is talk about his legacy, how he lived in his governments. People want to hear… there is a perception of economic developments, the numbers speak for themselves. In a region with great economic problems (…) I don’t think Bolsonaro will make big changes because he is in government and he is showing some results, especially the economy. What you need to do is show that you are a little more moderate, stop attacking institutions like the Supreme Court,” Figueredo added.

In rough definition, Lula won the first round of the presidential election by 5 points over the current head of stateBut it did not reach the 50% required by law, so there will be a vote on October 30.

The results were surprising given that practically all surveys are a report A very loose distinction In favor of the leader of the Labor Party. Many pollsters have even predicted a spectacular win in the first round.

Jair Bolsonaro and Lula will meet at the polls on October 30 (REUTERS / Adriano Machado)
Jair Bolsonaro and Lula will meet at the polls on October 30 (REUTERS / Adriano Machado)

However, at the end of an agonizing count that gave Bolsonaro an advantage of up to seven points, it was later whittled down, Results Former president Lula got 48.25% of the vote, while the president got 43.10%.99% polling booths were counted.

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In his first statement since Sunday’s election results, Bolsonaro sees a sense of change in the country, but warned that “the changes will be bad.”

He said “we have a second round” and “we can show people that inflation is coming down” and that the government “has not stopped serving the poor” through various subsidies approved in recent months. “I understand that there is a desire for change, but some changes may be bad,” the president told reporters outside his official residence in Brasilia.

This Monday, meanwhile, he encouraged his supporters to “focus” on the final vote on October 30. “Watch out! One of the main objectives has been achieved”He wrote on his social networks.

Lula, for his part, said the results of this first round represented an opportunity to have a face-to-face debate with Bolsonaro and that “the fight will continue until the final victory.”

The former president has announced that he will win the election, even if he does not win the long-awaited first round. “I always believed that we would win the elections, I assure you that we are going to win these elections. For us, this is a bit of a delay.”He said in front of his followers a few meters away from his campaign bunker.

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