March 26, 2023

East Valley Times

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BCRA has already accumulated a debt of USD 6,000 million due to current restrictions on importers.

180-day payment delay starts to pose medium-term problem by 2023 Chris Radcliffe/Bloomberg

Minister of Economy, Serge Massato be announced A new foreign exchange management scheme for payment of imports to be implemented from 2023. It is the framework that governs the issuance of authorizations for overseas purchases that emerge from a comprehensive import monitoring system known as SIMIs. Dollars to pay for imported goods. The new system will, in principle, be launched once the central bank’s decision to impose strict restrictions on payment of imports expires. With this move, the first phase came into effect in the last week of June. To date, according to official sources, the currency agency has accumulated a loan of USD 6,000 million to importers who are forced to raise their own funds for 180 days.As established by communication A 7532 of June 26, the extension was extended until the end of the year at the beginning of last month.

Although they promise from the government that the coins will be available in the predicted terms, the reality is the same Debt levels will put more pressure on the forex market in the next six months.

Thanks to the use of the “soybean dollar” which expired last Friday, reserves were liquidated by US$8,100 million and it managed to meet the IMF’s target, This is insufficient given the expected demand and limited supply in the last quarter of the year and the first months of 2023.. Although the central government raised net reserves of $4,600 million for this operation, the reality is that the panorama presents new challenges: on the one hand, a high deficit in the service account of the exchange market, which has already accumulated in the red. It was close to USD 10,000 million in the first 8 months of the year and is mainly explained by “travels, tickets and other card payments”. For example, in August, that line consumed 70% of the volatility. With the prospect of the World Cup in Qatar, seasonally high demand for summer vacations will increase.

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This year, they are featured in radius values.Stability of the forward exchange rate lag (as intended by the government) may indicate that in a few monthsAccumulated deficit of services account returns to peak levels of May 2018″, the date when dollar outflow peaked at USD 12,000 million.

At the same time, dollar income from rural areas will decline significantly. In principle, this usually happens in the last quarter of the year, but since there is no incentive to settle the grain, in addition, the majority of the success of the soybean dollar collection is included. “Progress” of exports. that is, A different treatment was pre-entered with dollars that are no longer available. Massa has given no indication that new stimulus measures will not be implemented. Instead, the focus is again on controlling demand rather than promoting supply.

In that context, Regularization of trade credit with importers is another obstacle for the summer, which will be contemplated in announcements made by the Minister of Economy. In this sense, they do not rule out that, in this sector, there will finally be a new extension of the obligation to finance purchases abroad for 180 days, although the parameters must be reviewed. However, they recognize in the Economic Panel that the difficulties imposed by the current import scheme put pressure on re-quotation of prices based on uncertainty or speculation regarding the capacity or replacement value of goods. In fact, since the restrictions were imposed three months ago, inflation has hovered around 7% per month.

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